Ahead of the COP26 summit on climate change, due to be held in Glasgow in November, a major new study says by 2025 there’s a 40% chance of at least one year being 1.5C hotter than the pre-industrial level.
This means we will be hitting a key global temperature limit in the next five years.
The percentage chance of hitting the 1.5C mark has been 20% since 2011.
Analysis of these report findings double that, putting the risk at 40%.
“What it means is that we’re approaching 1.5C – we’re not there yet but we’re getting close,” said Leon Hermanson, a senior Met Office scientist, showing the clear rise when put alongside temperatures from 1850-1900
“Time is running out for the strong action which we need now.”
Dr Joeri Rogelj, director of research at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London said “A single year hitting 1.5C therefore doesn’t mean the Paris limits are breached, but is nevertheless very bad news.
“It tells us once again that climate action to date is wholly insufficient and emissions need to be reduced urgently to zero to halt global warming.”
Projections indicate the world is on course to heat up by up to 3C, despite recent commitments to cut emissions. These commitments are simply not sufficient.
“The results of the new research are more than mere statistics” said the WMO’s secretary-general, Prof Petteri Taalas.
“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – that we are getting measurably and inexorably closer to the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change,” he explained.
“It is yet another wake up call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality.”
“We have to set a line in the sand to try to limit the temperature rise but we clearly need to recognise that we’re seeing the effects of climate change already in the UK and around the world and those effects will continue to become more severe.”
The COP 26 summit in November aims to galvanise world leaders; ambitions on tackling the climate emergency.
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